To improve the inflation signal in the price data, economists have often appealed to so-called core inflation measures, like the CPI excluding food and energy items?goods notorious for causing transitory fluctuations in the aggregate price data.
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Read Why We Focus On Core Inflation (Links)
Sometimes, the Carlson-Craig-Melick estimates of the probability the market places on alternative outomes for the federal funds rate can be fairly sensitive to incoming data, as well as the public musings of FOMC participants. Not for the May meeting, not last week. The picture:
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Read Last Week In Options On Fed Funds Futures: Retail Sales Make Their Mark (Links)
Several members were concerned that market participants might not fully appreciate the extent to which future policy action will depend on incoming economic data, especially when an end to the tightening process seems likely to be near.
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Read Someday The Consumer May Fade... (Links)
In fact, the low productivity explanation for low wages seem to be exactly what most of the survey respondents have in mind: On balance, nearly all of the economists? 44 of the 46 who answered the question? believe that illegal immigration has been beneficial to the economy.
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Read What (Some) Economists Have To Say About The Economic Effects Of Immigration (Links)
On the other hand, interest rates may rise, particularly in the United States, because global savers lose confidence in the dollar, or financial fragilities cause global production opportunities to contract. I'll put those types of rate increases in the bad, or at least not-so-good, category.
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Read Mr. Greenspan And The IMF Find Common Ground? (Links)
The trade gap, the amount by which imports exceed exports, fell 4.1 percent $65.7 billion from a record $68.6 billion in January, led by a decline in Chinese imports... Note: Calculated Risk has more on the budget deficit.
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Read The Deficits Move in Opposite Directions -- For Now (Links)
Read Will They Raise Rates In June? (Links)
Download Imp_pdf_slides_for_blog_040706.ppt Download Imp_pdf_slides_for_blog_040706.swf Download implied_pdf_may_040706.xls Download implied_pdf_june_040706.xls Download ImpPDFUpdateBreakLink-2.ppt Download ImpPDFUpdateBreakLink-2.swf
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Read Fed Funds Probabilities: Still Undecided On June (Links)
The Fed is likely to be concerned about the continued tightening of labor markets, which should keep the Fed on track for at least two more rate hikes... - John Ryding, Conrad DeQuadros, Elena Volovelsky of Bear Stearns
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Read A Mixed Reaction To A Good Jobs Report (Links)
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